5.50am...
Ok, cut a long story short, I started a full time job back in retail (basically my old job from 6 years ago). I lasted 3 months and broke my elbow after tripping up on some boxes (left on the floor by me, so I can't even claim). Elbow is jacked up pretty bad, doc says it'll be a month b4 I can even drive (I think longer). So I've started playing sngs all day to relieve boredom.
Before I started back at $2 180s I checked my previous horrid run from when I last played them, it was something like 7k games running at approx 12%. Ok, so I likely ran decently in my first 5k but 12%? Come on. I was also in the middle of ANOTHER $500+ downswing. So I'm expecting it turn right? Wrong. I immediately lost a further $450 running just about as bad as you can, I've since made this back, plus a little more, but as I write now I've just had another horrible session and I'm back down to like 8% from approx 900 games:
Ok so standard blah blah blah. I'd agree if it was after even a slight bit of run good. As it is, it's just a continuation of being brutalized in these games. Of course, I do know ruins like this CAN happen, it's just you don't expect it to happen to you, and if it does you can't be expected to take it well and be ok with it. Especially when you see regs who are no better/worse than you avioding it for tens of thousands of games, which, of course, CAN also happen.
I saw a sng variance simulation video the other day that stated a 25% winner in $3 45s (a game with signifacntly less variance than 180s) CAN run at just 10% over any 10k game sample. It scared the shit out of me. That must surely mean that you can perhaps run at less than half your real winrate for maybe 40k+ games in 180s, given the bigger fields. I reckon I'm in or close to that in my last 8k, maybe it can continue for a lot longer than I imagined. :(
Anyway, I'm going to keep a check on my cev for the rest of the year. It's not all that accurate but it's the only thing I have, and I feel I need to share it, if only for my own sanity.
So, here is my cev from those 900 games:
So 1.06 million down. I'll post cev every 1k games for the rest of 2011. It'll be a good thing for me personally as It'll remind me that a large part of struggling is simply bad luck, so I'll keep doing the things I know are working if you remove the luck factor, instead of changing things unnecessarily.
On other news, I've been thinking of going for 8k games in one month. $5k in a month in 2s is impossible, unless you can run at the hottest end of the scale for a large part of the month. I've learned that the hard way, as have others. Games also run less often since Black Friday and are undoubtedly tougher now. But I do believe $3k is possible if you can run decently in an 8k game month. It'll be tougher to play 8k these days but 15 hour days might just do it. I'm also intrigued about whether it's me or whether it's running bad that made me fail so hard at my two prop attempts.
Only a month off from the Miss Variance will tell. Watch this space...
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