15:06pm..
Re $4k in a month at $2 180s
If ur gonna bet against those guys (latest 2+2 prop bet) in the 2s, put as much as you can afford on them imo, the more I think about it, the more I think it's not gonna happen. Just make sure they get a trustworthy escrow. They both have so few posts that there could be something dodgy there. Although the fact they're starting in March makes me think they're at least planning to attempt it, they've obv chosen March coz it has 31 days lol, I guess they thought of the idea too late to do it in January.
Anyway. They're gonna find it tough, there are a ton of regs now, and I know I'll be playing a ton too during that month, probably 3-5k games. It'll inspire other solid players to play too, they're up against it for sure. Plus they don't have massive roi's from all the games they've played and neither has a valid sample in 2s yet. They're over 30% but that's from small samples, I reckon they probably think that's std and they'll run like that again over 8k more games.
The thing is, in these 2s the bad beats are so brutal that it makes you think you'e run badly even when you run hot lol. I remember thinking I ran horribly when I was at 70%, it's not until you really run badly that you realize how good you've run haha. I guess you can just run hot for 8k games, it's possible, but running good these days is 20% for solid regs. For one person to do that over 8k games in a single month is unlikely, for two guys to do it at the same time is almost impossible imo. They say they can play more than 8k if needs be but I'm sure they'll only meet the daily requirement to make it to 8k for the first couple of weeks at least, if they're not close to $2k each by the start of week 3 they'll probably have to play 350 games/day which is gonna soul crush them and almost certainly reduce their roi's as they increase tables to get the games in. All that will be after 2 weeks of grinding 260ish/day too so they'll already be pretty drained by that point.
Plus, what happens if one of them has gone the whole of week 1 BE? It can happen easily, I had a 2,500 game BE stretch very recently, it's easily done, how are they gonna continue the grind when one of them realizes he has to make $4k in 3 weeks? It'll also affect the other guys motivation since they both have to make it. Even if they both start like a train, at some point one, or both of them will hit a wall, they'll BE for a long stretch or they'll encounter a downswing they could never even imagine, if they're not prepared for that it'll come as a big shock to them, and I'm not sure either of them have seen it in 2s so they don't have the experience to plough through it, this, imo is the key, you need massive experience to keep the faith, you need to have got through that kind of thing and come out the other side. Without it, you'll be more inclined to quit on it.
I've got that experience now, whereas before I just quit coz I thought it was ridiculous and I felt helpless, like it wasn't normal and so therefore there wasn't anything I could do, it's easy to quit when you feel that way. The 2nd attempt I made was similar too, I still thought I'd just run unimagineably horridly and just assumed it couldn't go the same way, I thought I was due a heater and that normal service would be resumed, haha, turnsout poker doesn't work like that, variance has no memory. I quit coz I fucked my back up, but tbh there was a part of me that quit coz I could only see it going the same way again, I genuinely couldn't have carried on because of the back injury, but I imagine I'd have quit anyway eventually coz I was seeing similar variance all over again. I wish those boys luck, but I don't expect them to ship this particular bet.
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